Issue Overview: Earthquake readiness

By Bloomberg.com, adapted by Newsela staff

Almost two-thirds of the world’s population is expected to live in cities by 2050.

At least half of large cities are at risk of being hit by a major earthquake. Some such cities are Tokyo, Japan; Mexico City, Mexico; and San Francisco and Los Angeles in California.

These places must prepare for earthquakes. However, these places also have leaders who are only elected for short periods. They may not be thinking about such long-term problems.

It is impossible to predict when major earthquakes will happen. An earthquake might strike once in a lifetime, or not at all. What steps should be taken today to protect people and buildings from such a threat?

The Situation

Cities have different ways of preparing for earthquakes.

In 2011, a devastating earthquake hit Japan. This made cities more eager to plan for such a disaster.

The quake in Japan caused a tsunami, a set of huge ocean waves. The tsunami overtook the coast, destroying nuclear power plants in Fukushima. In all, the tragic event killed more than 15,000 people.

Los Angeles is requiring owners of about 15,000 weak buildings to strengthen them against earthquakes. San Francisco has done something similar.

In Peru, the capital city of Lima has a dangerous combination of unsteady housing built on unstable soil. Peru’s government holds nationwide earthquake drills to prepare.

Japan, Taiwan, Italy and Mexico are among the earliest users of earthquake warning systems. These detect the first waves of a quake and send out rapid warnings through radio and TV, and text messages to cell phones. These systems can automatically shut down transportation systems that might be in danger, like trains. A similar warning system will get tested this year on the U.S. West Coast.

After a horrible 1985 earthquake, Mexico City greatly improved its public buildings. These preparations led to fewer deaths when a quake struck there again in September 2017. Yet it still killed almost 400 people.

The Background

Shaking is a fact of life. Earth experiences several hundred minor earthquakes daily. A major one happens more than once a month on average. Humans can even cause earthquakes, such as when trying to drill for oil or natural gas.

Some cities are considered to be in the “Ring of Fire,” including Tokyo, San Francisco and Jakarta, Indonesia. These places are close to both fault zones and volcanoes. Faults are cracks in the earth where earthquakes often happen. These places also have soft soil that can worsen the destruction of a quake.

In 1985, an earthquake caused more than 5,000 deaths around Mexico City. This startled seismologists, who study earthquakes. The quake’s center was more than 200 miles away.

Scientists say major earthquakes are not increasing in frequency. Still, the possibility for damage is getting higher as cities grow. There are 283 million people in city areas at some risk of being killed, hurt or forced to flee due to an earthquake, says a study.

The Argument

“Retrofitting,” or updating and fixing the problems of cities, is happening across the world. However, retrofitting cities that are hundreds of years old isn’t cheap or easy. It’s not always proven to work, and progress can be slow.

Los Angeles is giving owners of risky buildings up to 25 years to make improvements. San Francisco is letting its buildings grow taller and hold more people, even though one of the city’s skyscrapers is sinking and leaning. In India, efforts to improve buildings have mostly not happened. There’s worry as well in Turkey. The government there had promised to make changes after a 1999 quake killed at least 17,000 people. Now, it is being criticized for undoing some earthquake-preparation plans.

All that may explain the move toward early-warning systems. These could give people seconds or maybe over a minute to get away from buildings at risk.

Technology may soon give us cheaper ways to warn people in danger. One way is with smartphones. Most smartphones can sense motion, meaning they can feel rumbles. Experts are exploring how to use smartphones to create a huge network. It would automatically detect earthquakes and send out warnings.